Honduras: "En route to a failed state"

Friends with NARBPO sent over a translated piece of an interesting editorial out of Honduras. The title "En route to a failed state" indicates, at least, that some people in Honduras are looking at a bleak future.

I would aruge that these spikes in violence are a combination of an ongoing street gang problem and spillover from Mexico.

Here's the translation El Heraldo (5/14/09):

The slaughter of seven workers Tuesday in the town of Arizona (no connection with state of Arizona in the U.S.) , Department (read : state) of Atlantida, on the same day that various more persons were assassinated in different events in the country, is a bloody indication of the increase in criminality to levels never before seen. One day before, on Monday, four policemen lost their lives, two in Olancho and two in Tegucigalpa, which once again manifests that insecurity affects everyone equally, even law enforcement agents. It’s unacceptable that every time more and more Hondurans of all social classes are victims of assassinations, extortions, robberies and all type of criminal acts and that the immense majority of the cases remain an absolute mystery and go unpunished. If the political and administrative chaos continues and nothing is done to combat organized crime, which each time carries out more daring activities, we shall go from being a poor and underdeveloped nation to being a failed state.

Why doesn't anyone worry about Guatemala?

I don't spend much time reading the Guatemala Times, but I have to admit, they did a great job on making a list of interesting and perhaps important events related to the country's on going security crisis. You can find it here.

Here's more:

The Southern Pulse network (now with its database and new website finally in beta testing) has learned that one in four immigrants crossing from Guatemala to Mexico are stopped, detained, and deported. Simply put, the Mexico/Guatemala border is less patrolled and much, much less secure that the US/Mexico border.

Couple that fact with the fact that Ecuador, Nicaragua, and now Honduras have all relaxed visa requirements for a number of countries, including China, Iran, and Russia (see? some diplomacy has paid off for these international "bad boys"), and you've got basically an open sieve into Mexico from just about every sketchy country in the world...

Enter Alvaro Colom, the embattled president of Guatemala (pictured above, thanks Guat. Times).

He's a chain smoker, runs around with a 12-man security detail, and recently dealt with a scandal that blew up when he discovered that his chief of intelligence had bugged his bedroom, living room, and office - only to turn around and sell the intel to Mexican organized crime. Alvaro Colom's political party is littered with old school organized criminal elements who are in bed with Mexican organized crime, and his police are just as corrupt as the guys in Mexico.

More detail here and here.

Now, consider Colom's limited budget, limited number of trusted personnel, and double-dish security issues with both organized criminals and street gangsters running amock.

What will happen if Calderon manages to put too much heat on the DTOs in Mexico?

As we've already seen, there is a clear and well documented spillover, and not north but south. Guatemala is today a serious issue, and if there is any state in the Americas that is close to failure, it is Guatemala, not Mexico. Why doesn't the US government see this?

Why doesn't mainstream media talk about it? Probably because its too far away from US borders. The truth is, however, that if Guatemala becomes a failed state, both Mexico and the US will suffer. I sincerely hope it does not come to that.

Mexico as a Hollow State

The good people at the National Journal agreed to post a discussion I offered on why Mexico is a hollow state, and why the country will never become a failed state.

See the post here.

Failure in Mexico: The State vs. the states

During the week of 5 January, Mexican military forces engaged and captured Enrique "El Primo" Rivera Garin, a suspected operator of the Beltran Leyva brothers cartel in the town of Tlapa de Comonfort, located in the state of Guerrero.

At the time of his arrest, Rivera had on his person some five kilos of cocaine, two assault rifles, a shotgun, three handguns, thousands of dollars in cash, over seven yards of detonating cord, and a cartridge of industrial explosive.

After his arrest, the town's mayor fired the entire police force. He suspected that the whole group had been working with the narco cell run by Rivera.

Reflecting on what Boz recently posted concerning a range of ideas and positions on Mexico as a failed state, I came to the conclusion that we shouldn't be talking about that yet. It's ok for the DOD to engage in long range planning. That's what they do.

In a Dallas Morning News article, the author takes a moment to consider Ciudad Juarez as a failed city, noting that the mayor and other city officials now commute from El Paso.

The same could probably be said of Tijuana. And I spoke with a contact in Culiacan yesterday who told me that he was all but convinced that it was time to leave the city. He said the violence there is the worst it's ever been. Most violent acts are likely not even reported.

I would submit that rather than consider Mexico as on the road to a failed state, we should dig deeper, look at the state level within Mexico, not simply the State. We should also look at the possibility of failed cities, and towns - especially towns like Reynosa, Matamoros, and Nuevo Laredo on the US-Mexico border where the chances of failure appear most likely.

Violence in Mexico has finally gained traction in US news. But rather than talk about possible eventualities, which is interesting I admit, let's focus on realities.

Ciudad Juarez is an ugly reality. So is the small town of Tlapa de Comonfort.

My question is how many small towns in Mexico are under the complete control of narcos. How many cities? And how many Mexican states? Counting those numbers, we will over time gain a better handle on whether or not Mexico will fail at the national level or become something perhaps even worse: a hollow democracy that, due to the ideals of sovereignty, shields corruption, crime, and violence that extends from the top all the way to small, forgotten towns all over the country.