War and Trade

The Venezuelan government has replaced Colombia with the United States as a main supplier of meat, fabric, clothes, cooking oil, and pharmaceuticals among other items.

Since July 2009, when President Chavez ordered a freeze in Venezuelan-Colombian relations, diplomatic ties have been severed with commercial ties under considerable restraint.

Chavez has looked to China, Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay, Bolivia, Ecuador, and now the United States to provide goods that Colombia previously sold to the Venezuelan market.

Obviously, this is a clear case of Chavez placing political considerations over economic good sense. Transaction costs alone dictate that the farther an item has to travel before arrival in market, the higher the cost, apart from the time it takes to establish new relationships, determine which products to buy, and so on.

Replacing Colombia with Ecuador or Venezuela probably doesn't make much of a difference, and given the extremely low cost of Chinese goods, there's probably an acceptable pay off there, economically and politically.

But when Chavez turns to the "evil empire" for a long list of goods, he's increasing transaction costs and further deepening the double standard under which his government operates with the United States.

Chavez is happy to sell the US oil and buy US goods, but he's just as quick to claim that the US is about to invade.

At the core of the decision to purchase goods from everyone but Colombia, however, is that Chavez is distancing Venezuela from his western neighbor, and the de facto nature of the two country's close commercial ties has been the strongest argument for why Caracas will not go to war with Bogota.

Yet the war drums continue to beat. Rumors of war circulate, and on both sides information continues to circulate about military activity on the border, including illegal fly overs and tense troop encounters.

As I wrote before, Venezuela would not do well to enter a protracted war with Colombia, but a quick and dirty firefight that ends before even the media picks up on it would serve Chavez's rhetorical purposes well - all just in time for the September legislative elections…

Human Rights and Corruption vs. Exposure in the Mx. Army

I submitted a comment on Shannon O'Neil's blog Latintelligence, and it turned out to be long enough to share here.

Her post is here.

My comment, written as the Founding Editor of SouthernPulse, is as follows:

Apart from concerns over corruption and human rights, which are both important considerations, we must also keep in mind that the Mx. military is not a sustainable option for Mexico's and indeed the sub-region' long-term security for many reasons, including the solder's exposure to the temptations of organized crime.

When you consider that there is one general for every 333 soldiers in the Mexican Army, compared to one general for every 1,720 soldiers in the US Army, we have a top-heavy scenario. These numbers coupled with the fact that generals earn US$13,000.00 a month, compared to recruits, who earn US$453 a month, spells out what we would consider a significant problem with pay for recruits.

Another consideration: the contract for a recruit is three years. But when a soldier is deployed, the Mexican Army can extend the recruit's term of service by a total of six more years. This, in part, is why we've seen a consistent number of soldiers A.W.O.L. Keep in mind that when they leave, they know that no one will hunt them down for desertion. The only real penalty, apart from foregone pay, is that their command post retains federal identification documents. These are easily forged.

Our consistent worry, apart from human rights abuses and corruption, is that the military's presence in the streets exposes soldiers to a criminal element that can pay them better, offer them better equipment, and in at least the case of the Zetas, can offer them benefits for their families and an esprit de corps that in many places has begun to falter across the Mexican Army deployments.

We don't mean to suggest that all who choose to go A.W.O.L. go rogue and join the ranks of organized crime. This is not the case. But there is an opportunity and a strong incentive. The longer the military remains in the streets, the longer soldiers will have to think about crossing to the "dark side."

Along with a discussion over human rights and corruption, we should consider this exposure, as exposure is what likely most contributes to abuses and corruption.

DHS sets a goal for border interdictions in 2010

I'm on the road, but wanted to share a quick note.

According to the Gov't Accountability Office (GAO), the Dept. of Homeland Security (DHS) has set a goal for fiscal year 2010 to apprehend around 30 percent of all criminals and contraband that flows into the US from Mexico.

Here's an excerpt:

"At the ports of entry, Customs and Border Patrol has both increased training for agents and enhanced technology. However, the DHS Annual Performance Report for fiscal years 2008-2010 sets a goal for detecting and apprehending about 30 percent of major illegal activity at ports of entry in 2009, indicating that 70 percent of criminals and contraband may pass through the ports and continue on interstates and major roads to the interior of the United States."

More detail here.

I'll be back to more regular posting next week.

Juarez could be the most violent city in the world

Mexico's Citizen Council for Public Security and Justice has issued a report just ahead of today's presidential address in Mexico (Calderon's version of the State of the Union) that underlines insecurity in Ciudad de Juarez, Mexico.

Juarez, according to the report, is more dangerous than Caracas, Cape Town, Baghdad, and Medellin.

August killings reached 300, surpassing a record set in July, with 267.

In 2008, a homicide rate of 130 killings for every 100,000 inhabitants was recorded, and Juarez accounted for nearly half the killings in Mexico in 2008.

So far this year, a total of 1,481 murders have been recorded, compared to a total of 1,623 murders for all of 2008. There were only 320 murders in 2007...

From the Dallas Morning News:

A poll published Tuesday in Mexico City's Reforma newspaper seems to indicate continuing support for his policy.

The poll showed that 37 percent of Mexicans believe the government is winning the battle against organized crime and that 20 percent do not. Moreover, 82 percent said they approve of the use of the military against drug traffickers, although 49 percent said they believe the military is involved in human rights violations.

The nationwide poll of 1,500 people had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.

Texas Sheriff Sentenced to Five Years

Former Starr County (map)Sheriff Reymundo Guerra was sentenced to 64 months in prison and four years of supervised release yesterday (27 August). He was found guilty of disrupting justice and facilitating Gulf Cartel smuggling operations into Texas.

A few months ago, when I was in Cochise Cty., Arizona, the local sheriff there told me that taking a bribe from mexican criminals amounted to a "sin of omission." That is, men and women who protect the border can choose not to do something that they can and should do.

On the border, they can choose not to stop a car that they know is full of contraband. Border sheriffs, likewise, may choose not to focus their investigative force on specific subjects, or a specific hot spot in the county, because their criminal employers have asked him to simply look the other way. In the criminal world, there is likely no other job that is easier than looking the other way...

Kudos for the FBI on taking this guy out. He is a disgrace to all men and women who wear a badge, and, unfortunately, stands as yet another example of how our law enforcement officials here in the US are not immune to the corruptive force of Mexican drug trafficking.

One of my favorite Texas bloggers concluded a similar post with the same thought I'd like to put forward:

"How many more officers are out there on the take is anybody's guess."

Shifting security realities in Brazil

The Brazilian military announced on 18 August that it will increase troop presence on the country's border with Colombia.

This is a conversation that has been going back and forth between the president's office and the military generals for years. Slowly but surely, the Brazilian military has begun to make a shift from its traditional focus in the southern part of the country, where the assumption is that Argentina is considered the most likely to invade and the Amazon provides the best defense from potential enemies to the north.

Closer ties with Colombia, such as the hot-pursuit fly over agreement, and generally closer cooperation on security matters, has prompted the Brazilians to think more about that border. Exactly where the troops will be concentrated remains a vague detail, but I suspect that Leticia is one destination, as well as certain areas of the infamous "Dog's Head" area.

The Dog's Head refers to the shape of a specific section of the Brazilian-Colombia border, traditionally a haven for illegal gem miners, FARC soldiers, and all sorts of ne'er-do-wells.

Overtly, the military is worried about "spillover" from Colombia's internal conflict, but I wonder to what extent that worry about Venezuela has primed the generals for spillover from that country, in the event of a political meltdown in Caracas.

Brazil would be very careful not to tip off Chavez, so where troops are placed will be very interesting. How close to the Brazilian-Venezuelan border will they go?

More here on the Brazilian-Colombian aspects of this decision. Boz explores today the "post-conflict" scenario in Colombia with the so-called emerging-groups capturing some attention as the newest threat to security in Colombia.

Sino-Brazilian Naval relations

The Chief of Staff of the Japanese Maritime Self Defense Force recently met with Chinese Defense Minister Liang Guianglie in Ningbo, Zhejiang province, China to review China's East Fleet.

Many analysts agree that Naval control over the waters of East Asia will again become a contest (as it was during WWII) as China's Navy, known as the PLAN, continues its rapid development.

Japan, especially is worried, as is the United States.

But what I find more interesting is Brazil's role in China's naval development.

Below, my research assistant Kelsey Price, has prepared a backgrounder on Sino-Brazilian naval relations, including Brazil's offer to train the Chinese on the use of aircraft carriers - something the PLAN has yet to deploy.

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As China attempts to solidify its place as an emerging world power, its leaders have placed more emphasis on building a stronger navy. At the forefront of this naval initiative is the construction of, and training for, China’s first aircraft carrier. Russia has sold China its former carrier Varyag (renamed the Shi Lang), and China has been slowly updating the craft since its docking at a Chinese shipyard in 2002. Analysts conclude that China’s navy, or PLAN, may use the ship for training and as a base for the construction of two of its own carriers.

Brazil is looking for international significance as well, so when PLAN turned to Brazil’s aircraft carrier-trained crew to train China’s navy, the Latin American power agreed to invite Chinese naval personnel aboard the Sao Paolo, Brazil’s only aircraft carrier. While the two BRIC nations—part of a group with Russia and India—both benefit from the military favor, China had very few choices. Brazil is one of only four nations to maintain an aircraft carrier capable of launching and recovering conventional aircraft, and the only one willing or able to train PLAN personnel. The United States has little interest in training the navy of a country it sees as a potential threat; EU law prohibits France from helping; and China’s relationship with Russia is hampered by an intellectual property dispute over Chinese fighter aircraft.

China clearly benefits from the naval training, but Brazil’s reward for helping China is less material than political. Brazil strengthens its reputation as a global force, especially when it assists a country as powerful as China. It also establishes stronger relations between the two countries, which formerly concentrated on economic ties and shared inclusion in the emerging BRIC nations.

Brazil and China’s other BRIC partners—India specifically—have expressed concern over PLAN’s technological advancement. India has declared China to be its “biggest threat.” China’s Major General Qian Lihua, director of the ministry’s Foreign Affairs office, assured, “Even if one day we have an aircraft carrier, unlike another country, we will not use it to pursue global deployment or global reach.” China’s President Hu Jintao also claimed that he did not seek regional hegemony or an arms race; rather, China would use its navy to pursue international cooperation in peacekeeping and anti-piracy enforcement.

The United States suspects other motives. A US Congressional Report for the People in May suggested that China may plan to use its improved navy to create conflict with Taiwan, and perhaps to prevent US intervention in the dispute. China may also use its threatening aircraft carrier to assert itself in the region, especially regarding its claims in territorial and freedom of navigation disputes. Its strengthened place as a world power may also convince other countries to align its policies with China, and displace US influence in the region. These concerns have prompted the US navy to pursue increased monitoring of China’s actions and to send more personnel to the Pacific.

Bates Gill, director of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, considers the very display of China’s navy a non-verbal threat to other countries. PLAN celebrated its 60th anniversary by including 52 navy vessels and aircraft in maneuvers off the eastern port of Qingdao in April. "Showing what you have can always also act as a deterrent - that's how it's seen in the US," said Mr Gill. "When the US navy takes an aircraft carrier to Hong Kong, it also tells the Chinese, have a look, you don't want to confront this."

Brazil and China’s rise in international influence—and displacement of US influence—is expedited by a visibly strong navy, and the partnership forming between the two nations suggests the emergence of a strong BRIC allegiance without the sway of the United States.

Notes:

“Beijing’s aircraft carrier will convert Asian oceans into Chinese lakes.” 28 May, 2009. Rupee News delivered by Newstex.

Farley, Robert. “The New China-Brazil axis.” 27 May 2009. The Progressive Realist.

“Brazil/China consolidate energy, trade and finance partnership.” 19 May, 2009. South Atlantic news agency MercoPress.

Ansari, Moin. “BRIC-battered: The growing Brazil china axis and fraying Indo-Russia deals.” 27 May, 2009. Rupee News.

“China has aircraft carrier hopes.” 17 November 2008. BBC.

Hille, Katherin. “China’s show of sea power challenges US.” 24 April 2009. The Financial Times.

“China Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy Capabilities -- Background and Issues for Congress.” 29 May 2009. Open CRS, Congressional Report for the People.

See “China’s show of sea power challenges US,” Financial Times.

An example of criminal branding?

Today, I came across an article that appears to be an example of criminal branding.

As I've talked about before, criminal branding is an effective way for small-time crime group to leverage the fear factor already earned by larger groups.

This example is one where kidnappers claim to be a member of Los Zetas.

The story in the El Paso Times notes:

"Three of the suspects seemed to be younger than typically hardened Zetas, who often are former soldiers and ex-police officers."

It is possible that these guys were members of Los Zetas, in a way part of the organization's evolution.

It's also possible that these guys operate with the permission of Los Zetas, and have been told that if they are caught, that they should tell the police and press that they are Zetas, which expands the perception of this group's presence across Mexico.

Desperation Route - investigative series on the border

In March, I traveled to Arizona and Sonora to research a series on border culture for the International Relations and Security Network.

We've completed the piece, christened Desperation Route, and it is now available on the ISN Special Reports site.

There are four parts: Drugs and Vengeance; Armed for Corruption; Getting Across; and, Meeting the Smugglers. Each piece is a stand alone but considered a four-part investigation.

Thank you to the editors at ISN for your hard work!

Now, back to the MS-13 blog...

A little coverage: This is for the Mara Salvatrucha

I've been on the road for work this week, so before the weekend I wanted to share here a few spots on the Internet where there has been a little early coverage of my book on the MS-13.

One of the few bloggers I read regularly, Zen Pundit, received an early copy of my book from my publisher. He was kind enough to devote some time for a post. Thanks!

Over at the Dallas Morning News' bookblog, reporter Diane Solis put up a brief review on my book and a related book by Tom Diaz. I've not read Tom's book, but I'll be sure to buy it. He operates a blog called Fairly Civil.

Our friends at Mexidata.info also posted a note on the book release.

And investigative reporter Jonathan Franklin, who recently published a piece - The Real Con Air - on deportation, interviewed me for this piece, and was nice enough to get the book's title in there. Thanks Jonathan!

Finally, my book is available for Kindle readers, and will be on stands July 7th.

Brazil: the low hanging fruit

Southern Pulse has reported yesterday that the French authorities are investigating the possibility that two terrorists boarded Air France flight 477 in Rio with the premeditated intention of exploding the aircraft.

A week or so ago, the Brazilian intelligence agency leaked (not sure if it was intentional or not) that some analysts were considering the theory that the explosion was a terrorist attack.

News out of the UK exonerates the two men who the French thought were terrorists, but I want to consider for a moment the possibility that terrorists boarded a flight in Rio to explode an Air France jet.

I've lived in Brazil for a long time, most of that time spent in Rio. I can say from first hand experience that it would not be a challenge for anyone who wanted to board a plane in Rio with an explosive device.

The security is all but non-existent. But that's not the root of it. The bottom line is that the Brazilian government, and most Brazilians, think that terrorism is some one else's problem.

This is why, for example, that certain employees of the USG have complained in the past that the Brazilians were dragging their heels when it came to the 3+1 group (Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay - plus - the United States), which worked on issues such as money laundering and terrorist financing in the tri-border area.

When I speak with Brazilian Federal Police, politicians, and academics, and others, we always talk about organized crime, the drug trade, black markets, Brazil's borders (it shares a border with ten other countries), and areas of the country that are most vulnerable, namely the Amazon.

But when the topic of terrorism comes up, the usual response is the FARC - and rightly so. The FARC is the most proximate terrorist group that many Brazilian officials consider a threat.

The idea that Hezbollah or some other terrorist group may be forming cells in Brazilian cities, with the intention of hitting a soft target in Brazil, is not something that I think the Brazilians spend a lot of time talking about and thinking about.

Then again, the United States did not embrace a national dialogue about terrorism until September 11.

Terrorism is not a happy topic. When we dig into the realities that a terrorist presence may produce, the conclusions are frightful, and demanding. Homeland security in any county is a high-ticket item. And the Brazilian government simply does not have the resources.

The explosion of AF477 likely was not a terrorist act. The strongest evidence of that theory is that no one has stepped forward to claim responsibility - correct me if I'm wrong.

If it was a terrorist act, however, it would put Brazil on the map of terrorist targets, changing the reality of all who live and work in Brazil, and likely changing the posture of the Brazilian government vis-a-vis working with the USG to clamp down on terrorist activity in South America.

I am thankful the flight was most likely a freak accident, but I'm worried for Brazil.

For any terrorist group looking for a place to hit a soft target, Brazil is a low hanging fruit - one that becomes ever more juicy as Lula raises Brazil's profile on the global stage.

The troll under the bridge and terrorists in Mexico

I know I'm supposed to be off promoting my book, but I had to get in at least a couple more posts...

Lately I've seen a great deal of media flack about terrorists and Mexican smugglers. I've also spoken to many, many people on border violence, and this issue seems to continue to rise to the surface of the conversation.

Let me begin by stating a well known fact among Border Patrol, Intel analysts who focus on the border, and just about anyone who deals with trying to stop illicit products - people and goods - from crossing north.

"Smugglers are smugglers" one intel analyst and veteran field operative told me this morning.

This is perhaps the only reason why we should keep an eye on the theory that terrorists could leverage contacts with Mexican organized crime to enter the United States.

I call it a "troll under the bridge" arrangement. All border crossing zones into the United States are either tightly controlled or contested (such as Juarez these days). Those border crossings, or plazas, all have one man who oversees the south-north traffic into the United States. He is an economic actor motivated by power and wealth. He is the troll.

If anyone who is not part of his integrated network comes along and wants to cross the bridge into the United States, the troll will be paid. This exchange is sometimes called a tax or a fee in Mexico.

This is where the theory of terrorists crossing into the US through Mexico holds water. The troll will let anyone cross the bridge if they can pay the tax, with the exception of rivals within Mexico, of course.

To take this theory one step farther, and beyond where most US-based media stops the analysis, we will have to consider the existence of Hezbollah in Latin America.

Apart from the Iranian presence in the Americas, which is an overlapping issue - there is a de facto presence of Hezbollah operatives in the region, likely concentrated now somewhere in Venezuela. 

My guess would be in northwestern Venezuela, near the border with Colombia. Email me if you want details on why.

Other places are:

The TBA (tri-border area between Argentina, Paraguay, and Brazil), and possibly other tri-border areas in South America; 

Bolivia, Peru, and Chile; 

and, Nicaragua.

Beyond the presence of Hezbollah operatives in the Americas, however, is the very real existence of a culture of Islamic fundamentalism. I admit, I'm not an expert on this, but I have seen enough evidence of Islamic fundamentalist activity in South America, especially Venezuela, that leads me and others to consider that "home-grown" Venezuelans could become converts to a Hezbollah operative's way of thinking and viewing the world.

The possibility that a Venezuelan national, who looks Latino and speaks fluent Spanish, converts to a fundamentalist Islamic way of thinking is just that: a possibility.

This possibility, when combined with the reality that a smuggler is just a smuggler in Mexico, strengthens the theory that terrorists could cross into the United States from Mexico.

But I'm not an alarmist on this. In a recent conversation I was labeled "bullish" by a new friend in New York who is working on a piece on this issue.

But the truth is, there is very little evidence to suggest that Hezbollah operatives are crawling around in Mexico. And apart from a crossing tax, what do Mexican criminals get out of it? 

...Likely reduction in their market size. 

A piece in Newsmax, published on 5 June, pulls together conclusions from a secret intelligence mission. To me, this piece is more media flack than anything. 

But the truth is that Washington is paying attention to this issue, and our leaders there should because Mexico needs all the help it can get. Prevention is the best medicine, and I'm relieved to know that the DIA, NSA, and CIA are all aware of this issue and trying to stay on top of it.

The fallacy of 287(g)

I wanted to share here a post from a blog I frequent, Standing FIRM.

This post is about the 287(g) statute that allows ICE to essentially deputize local authorities so illegal immigrants may be arrested by local cops simply for being illegal.

Below is the first two paragraphs of the post, with a link for the rest:

I have been posting for at least a year about the negative impacts of the so-called 287(g) program that allows local police agencies to enforce federal immigration laws. The most notable case of 287(g)’s negative impact on communities is that of Maricopa County and our food friend Joe Arpaio. 287(g) is the program that gives Arpaio the authority to continue his reign of terror in Arizona.

Recently the Police Foundation, a non-partisan Think Tank whose stated goal is “Supporting innovation and improvements in policing“, released a study on local enforcement of federal immigration laws. The result? To be brief: Federal Immigration laws should not be enforced by local police agencies. Period.

Read the rest here

Mr. Terrorist, Do your homework

I caught this piece from the Washington Times this morning about an alleged terrorist proclaiming in a video that "soldiers" could use tunnels under the US-Mexico border to smuggle a bio-weapon into the United States.

His example is four pounds of anthrax.

Of course such claims can be alarming, but I'm doubtful.

I don't think any terrorist with four pounds of anthrax, or of any chemical agent, would be allowed to use the tunnels. And I say allowed because these tunnels are tightly controlled on the Mexican side.

Second, Mexican criminals are economic actors. What do they get out of a catastrophic terrorist attack in a city in the Southern half of the United States?

They get increased vigilance on the border - not good.

They lose thousands of potential customers and therefor money - not good.

They become labeled as terrorists - which they are within their own right, but not according to the USG - and are then the target of the most powerful anti-terrorist organizations in the world, all working for the USG. Again, not good.

So, this guy in the video may think he has a good idea, but I doubt he has done his homework.

Zetas in Belize and Texas

A contact in Mexico told me this morning that according to his 2008 research, 67 "operational Zeta bases" were located on the Mexican border with Belize.

He went back in April 2009, and counted 78 operational bases that "specialized in criminal activity".

The border between Mexico and Belize is an underreported transit zone, one more likely to be used as the Guatemalan military works with the Mexicans to seal Guatemala's northern border in the Peten department (more on the Peten here, here and here).

Moving to Texas, a San Antonio paper reported today that the FBI is circulating to local and state authorities a report that gives a vague reference to the presence of a Zetas cell in Texas, complete with a ranch, inside Texas, where Zetas train others in the art of kidnapping, such as how to run a car off the road to kidnap the driver and/or passengers, surveillance, small groups tactics, etc.

The Zetas continue to evolve, and may even have become something of a criminal brand. It will be interesting to see how this news in Texas pans out.

We already know what will happen (or already has happened) in Belize - a new transshipment route from the Caribbean into southern Mexico...

Most Dangerous Cities in the US

Just a quick note here to share the Forbes.com "Most Dangerous Cities" article, which made note that ten cities on the list overlap with Mexican organized criminal activity:

Though nationwide crime was down 3.5% year over year in the first six months of 2008, the cities atop our list illustrate a disturbing trend: All 10 of the most dangerous cities were among those identified by the Department of Justice as transit points for Mexican drug cartels.

The whole article is here.

That .50 cal anti-aircraft weapon

I just came across an article here, that breaks down some of the curious details surrounding the seizure of a anti-aircraft machine gun found mounted in the bed of a pick up truck.

Here's the more relevant section:

One of the most worrisome weapons yet was seized this week just south of Nogales, Ariz.: a powerful gun mounted on the back of an SUV and protected by a thick metal shield. Police said it belonged to one of the Beltran Leyva drug gangs.

Mexican and U.S. authorities disagree on just what type of gun it was. Federal police coordinator Gen. Rodolfo Cruz maintains it was .50-caliber anti-air craft machine gun. ATF, the U.S. Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives, said it was an unmodified .50-caliber semiautomatic rifle made by TNW, a U.S. firearms manufacturer.

ATF investigators traced the gun - along with seven others seized at a house in Sonora state on Monday - to suppliers in the United States, said Bill Newell, special agent in charge of the ATF in Arizona and New Mexico.

While crudely built, the truck-mounted rifle would give traffickers a powerful advantage against lightly armed police, Newell said: A gunman could protect a whole convoy with sweeping fire while protected by the metal shield.

"Imagine being a two- or three-man police team at a rural checkpoint and these guys roll up with this thing," Newell said. "You'd be slightly intimidated, wouldn't you?"

Background checks on politicians

Ahead of the upcoming 5 July legislative elections for all 500 seats of Mexico's lower house (as well as some gubernatorial seats), the PRD, has publicly asked the Attorney General's office (PGR) to complete background checks on all PRD candidates to ensure that they have no ties to organized crime.

The PRD has also asked the PGR to conduct background checks on PAN and PRI candidates as well.

This is a bold move, considering it's quite possible the PGR fingers some PRD members for ties to org. crime.

What's more interesting is that the PRI, arguably the party best positioned to gain some seats, is also the party most likely to have compromised politicians on the ticket, especially in the lower house.

The PAN, President Calderon's party, is in trouble, as many people are tired of the violence, and there's a growing momentum in Mexico of columnists, academics, thinkers, etc, who suspect the PAN will lose big in the upcoming elections.

But if the PGR takes up the PRD on its offer, then we're in for an interesting election cycle.

Finally, it's worth mention that many of us who think about ties between org. crime and politicians in Mexico would agree that org. crime focuses more on bribing state level politicians, from the governor down, and normally leaves the federal stuff alone - with the exception of killing federal level law enforcement officials from time to time.

So if the PGR does choose to investigate all candidates, it will be interesting to see who gets caught and who gets elected. Either way, I suspect Calderon will not like the outcome.

Why doesn't anyone worry about Guatemala?

I don't spend much time reading the Guatemala Times, but I have to admit, they did a great job on making a list of interesting and perhaps important events related to the country's on going security crisis. You can find it here.

Here's more:

The Southern Pulse network (now with its database and new website finally in beta testing) has learned that one in four immigrants crossing from Guatemala to Mexico are stopped, detained, and deported. Simply put, the Mexico/Guatemala border is less patrolled and much, much less secure that the US/Mexico border.

Couple that fact with the fact that Ecuador, Nicaragua, and now Honduras have all relaxed visa requirements for a number of countries, including China, Iran, and Russia (see? some diplomacy has paid off for these international "bad boys"), and you've got basically an open sieve into Mexico from just about every sketchy country in the world...

Enter Alvaro Colom, the embattled president of Guatemala (pictured above, thanks Guat. Times).

He's a chain smoker, runs around with a 12-man security detail, and recently dealt with a scandal that blew up when he discovered that his chief of intelligence had bugged his bedroom, living room, and office - only to turn around and sell the intel to Mexican organized crime. Alvaro Colom's political party is littered with old school organized criminal elements who are in bed with Mexican organized crime, and his police are just as corrupt as the guys in Mexico.

More detail here and here.

Now, consider Colom's limited budget, limited number of trusted personnel, and double-dish security issues with both organized criminals and street gangsters running amock.

What will happen if Calderon manages to put too much heat on the DTOs in Mexico?

As we've already seen, there is a clear and well documented spillover, and not north but south. Guatemala is today a serious issue, and if there is any state in the Americas that is close to failure, it is Guatemala, not Mexico. Why doesn't the US government see this?

Why doesn't mainstream media talk about it? Probably because its too far away from US borders. The truth is, however, that if Guatemala becomes a failed state, both Mexico and the US will suffer. I sincerely hope it does not come to that.

Weekend News Review - FARC, Customs corruption, and grenades

1) Colombian President Alvaro Uribe said that if the FARC keeps quiet and avoids any skirmishes with anyone for "three or four" months, then he will consider peace talks.

Up until now, Uribe has been staunchly against talking to the FARC. History has shown that the FARC is not always the most honest negotiators. But that was when the rebel army was much stronger. In its weakened state, peace might not be a bad idea.

Semana article here.

2) One of the conclusions of the 20th annual meeting of Interpol (held in Chile this year) was that Al-Qaeda (or any terrorist organization, really) could infiltrate Latin America because of lenient or in some cases (Ecuador and Nicaragua) non-existent immigration controls.

Of the 150 million or so annual visits to Latin America from other countries around the world, only 50 million passports are scanned, according to Ronald Noble, Interpol Secretary General.

Interpol is specifically worried about Central America.

3) Texas authorities seized some $120,000, gun parts, and "grenades" from a car headed south on Interstate-35, according to the San Antonio News.

Obviously the grenades are interesting. My sources mostly agree that grenades used in Mexico come from Guatemala. To sell grenades in the US, a merchant must operate a class two license, I believe, which is a very strict legal regime.

The article notes these grenades are "improvised".

4) A 34 year-old Customs agent was arrested this past Friday (April, 3rd) on charges that he arranged to "wave immigrant and drug smugglers through his inspection booth for money." If convicted he could serve up to 35 years in prison - ouch!

As a Sheriff in southern Arizona recently told me, this is a "sin of omission." To break the law, these men don't actually do anything. It's what they don't do - i.e. stop a car stuffed with coke - that breaks the law. To wave the right car and receive thousands a week for doing so, with little chance of apprehension, so long you don't flash the money or act out, is a tough thing to turn down. I often wonder about this kind of "soft" corruption, and whether or not the border is littered with these guys...

5) Not surprisingly, Chihuahua State Governor, Jose Reyes Baeza, was attacked on 22 February. One of his bodyguards was killed during the attack, and two were wounded. Two of the men allegedly responsible were arrested in the city of Chihuahua on 31 March. They were caught with AR-15 rifles stolen from the wounded bodyguards.

This news only came out in English on 5 April... That in itself is interesting.